FAO Says Hormuz Crisis Could Develop Into Global Agrifood Catastrophe

(MENAFN) The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) sounded a stark alarm on Monday, warning that a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks cascading into a worldwide agrifood catastrophe — disrupting fertilizer and energy shipments, inflating food prices, and cutting crop yields through the end of 2026 and into 2027.

In a formal statement, the FAO urged the immediate resumption of vessels carrying agricultural inputs through the waterway, stressing that delays are already beginning to reverberate across global supply chains. Between 20% and 45% of exports of key agrifood inputs pass through the strait, the agency noted — a dependency that leaves the world's food system acutely exposed to any prolonged blockage.

FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero issued a blunt warning, stating that "the clock is ticking," and singled out poorer nations as the most vulnerable, given that their crop calendars leave little buffer against fertilizer shortages and energy cost spikes. He cautioned that declining yields and mounting food inflation in the coming year could prompt governments to impose domestic price controls, with knock-on risks for interest rates and broader global economic growth.

FAO's most recent Food Price Index for March held relatively steady, supported by ample cereal stocks, but the agency warned that pressure is already building in April and is forecast to intensify in May as farmers begin reassessing their planting decisions in response to fertilizer scarcity and elevated energy costs.

David Laborde, head of FAO's Agrifood Economics Division, declared that the world is already in an "input crisis" and issued a direct warning against allowing it to escalate further into catastrophe.

The agency called on governments to refrain from imposing export restrictions on energy and fertilizers and urged a reassessment of biofuel mandates, cautioning that redirecting land and resources toward biofuel production would tighten food supplies at a critical moment. FAO also recommended deploying multilateral financing instruments — including IMF facilities — to help vulnerable nations secure fertilizer quickly without setting off a damaging subsidy race.

The agency underscored the structural fragility of the situation, noting that fertilizer and energy markets are inherently inelastic, meaning even modest reductions in traded volumes can trigger disproportionately sharp price increases. It warned that if the current disruption compounds with a strong El Niño weather pattern, the resulting pressures could surpass those experienced during the 2022 global food crisis.

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